Russian selenelion at play! US observes closely

Despite decades-old friendship, the bilateral trade between the two countries has amounted to the US $10.11 billion in 2019–20, with both countries having invested in each other's oil and gas sectors. While In comparison, India-US bilateral goods and services trade stood at $88.75billion in the same period

A selenelion or selenehelion is an astronomical event where a viewer on earth can see both the Sun and an eclipsed Moon simultaneously. A similar geopolitical and geostrategic event is currently in play that involves Russian, India and the US.

While Russia has amassed nearly two hundred thousand troops on the Ukrainian border for a possible invasion, it is refreshing decades-old military and strategic relations with India through military suppliers and military technology upgrades. However, both international events are unacceptable to the United States; thus, American sanctions on Russia are inevitable; however, the question is, where will it leave India?

Even though "Russia has started supplying S-400 air defence system to India," and "the first division will be delivered by the end of 2021," India managed to keep itself insulated from the US sanctions. However, the Russian posturing on Ukraine occurs at an inconvenient time for India as its diplomatics now have to navigate the minefields around Russia-Ukraine standoff. And, the US is closely observing the Russian selenelion.

Importance of President Putin trip to India

On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin's "brief but important visit to India" saw inking "several agreements to deepen cooperation in defence, trade, space, technology, energy and culture" during the summit.

Trade and defence

Though the showpiece of the summit is "the Russian President hands over the model of an S-400 missile to Prime Minister Narendra Modi", signifying the delivery of the air-defence system. The other key long-pending deal that got cleared is producing AK 203 Kalashnikov rifles. Under this Indo-Russian joint venture worth Rs 5,000 crore, over five lakh assault rifles will be produced at Korwa in Amethi. According to sources, "the two sides are set to focus on co-production and co-development of military equipment and platforms."

Despite decades-old friendship, the bilateral trade between the two countries has amounted to the US $10.11 billion in 2019–20, with both countries having invested in each other's oil and gas sectors. While In comparison, India-US bilateral goods and services trade stood at $88.75billion in the same period. Delhi and Moscow have set a bilateral trade target at $30 billion by 2025. They will look to diversify their portfolio education, cyber security, agriculture, railways, pharmaceuticals, and clean energy.

Goepolicitc and goestartgety

Putin's trip to Delhi, at a time when the pandemic is still raging in his country and a possible third wave looming large across the globe, signifying the importance Moscow attaches to its relationship with India. This is Putin's second visit outside Russia this year, after a recent visit to Geneva for the summit meeting with US President Joe Biden. The objective of the visit is to reinforce the importance of Moscow attaches to its relations with New Delhi.

The Indo-Russia relationship has stood the test of time despite divergent strategic interests and emerging challenges. The binding force has been defence trade between Delhi and Moscow. According to estimates, nearly 70 per cent of India's defence supplies are still met by Russia despite efforts by New Delhi to "consciously diversified its new purchases from other countries."

In recent years, the two countries had to overcome challenges due to growing volatility in geopolitics, which forced both nations onto different international groupings. While Russia may be irritated at the growing closeness between India and the US, especially when it comes to defence trade. New Delhi would like to read Moscow's mind on Beijing today and in future.

Coopration on Afghanistan

Both the countries can cooperate on several issues, and Afghanistan is one of them. The security concerns have deepened for the two countries since the Taliban, dominated by the Haqqani Network, took over Kabul. Some of the real and immediate threats emerging from the land-lock country are terrorism, terror financing, the flow of drugs and arms. India has lost ground in the country it built in the past two decades, and according to observers, "Moscow can help Delhi recover the lost ground in Afghanistan."

During his meeting with Putin, PM Modi maintained that "despite changes in geopolitical equations, the friendship of India and Russia remained constant."

Similarly, Putin stated that Moscow "perceive India as a great power, a friendly nation, and a time-tested friend," He was looking forward to enhancing relations with India.

If Russia invades Ukraine, the US has warned it of "Cripping sanctions", including expulsion from the Global banking system. Coming weeks are critical as the US and Russian flex their muscle on Kiev. Indian diplomats will be on their toes trying to keep India from being dragged into playing the Russian roulette.

(The author is Major SM (retd), Founder of MyStartup TV)